Irish Election Literature

… what you maybe meant to keep…

An Analysis of the 2009 Local Election Results in Dublin September 2, 2010

From a series of Articles done for the CLR

An Analysis of the 2009 Local Elections in Dublin

Seat Bounce stats for 2009 LE in Dublin
Dublin City Council
FF 11.5% of seats with 17% of votes (seat bounce of 0.67)
FG 23% of seats with 18% of votes (1.28)
Labour 36.5% of seats with 27% of vote (seat bounce of 1.35)
GP 0% of seats with 3% of votes
SF 13.5% of seats with 12% of votes (1.13)
PBP 4% of seats with 4% of votes (1)
Left (WP +Ind) -10% of seats with 10% of votes (1)

SDCC
FF 15% of seats with 18% of vote (0.83)
FG 31% of seats with 27% of vote (1.15)
Lab 35% of seats with 25% of vote (1.4)
SF 11% of seats with 11% of vote (1)

Fingal
FF 16% of seats with 16% of vote (1)
FG 25% of seats with 21% of vote (1.19)
Lab 37.5% of seats with 26% of vote (1.44)
SF 0 seats wit 5%
GP 0 seats with 6%
SOC 12.5% seats with 14% of vote (.9)

Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown
FF 14% of seats with 16% of vote (.87)
FG 40% of seats with 34% of vote (1.18)
Lab 29% of seats with 23% of vote (1.26)
SF 0 seats wit 3%
GP 0 seats with 6%
PBP 7% of seats with 7.5% of vote (1)

At the last General Election in the Dublin Constituencies

FF 40% of seats 39% of votes (1.03)
FG 21% of seats 19% of votes (1.11)
LAB 19% of seats 14.5% of votes (1.31)
GP 11% of seats 8% of votes (1.38)
PD 2% of seats 4% of votes
SF 2% of seats 7% of votes

Party seats/ quotas

Fianna Fail

Dublin City Council

1 seat
Cabra Glasnevin 2.05
Clontarf 1.22
Donaghmede 1.07
Artane Whitehall 1.06
Pembroke Rathmines 0.98
Ballymun Finglas 0.93

0 seats
South West Inner City 0.8
Crumlin Kimmage 0.66
Ballyfermot Drimnagh 0 seats 0.5 quota
North Inner City .59
South East Inner City .59

SDCC

1 seat
Clondalkin 1.35
Rathfarnham 1.21
Tallaght Central .99
Tallaght South 1.05

no seats
Lucan (a six seater) .8 quota

Fingal
1 seat
castleknock 0.97
Howth-Malahide 1.07
Mulhuddart 1.15
Swords 0.93

No seat
Balbriggan 0.62

Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown
1 seat
Dundrum 1.06
Glencullen Sandyford 1.02
Stillorgan 0.94
Dun Laoghaire 0.77 (lab got 2 seats on 1.13)

no seat
Ballybrack 0.68
Blackrock 0.89

Looking at the stats Fianna Fáil’s core vote dropped too low to elect councillors in many areas.
Not alone that but looking at the stats for quotas required, FF in all bar one area had to have at least 0.93 of a quota to get elected, which was very large considering the amount of Non Transferable
votes there would be about the place. In essence FF have gone back to being transfer unfriendly (Its probably best to look at Eoin Ryans figures in the Euros to see the lack of transfers he got.)
The only LEA to buck the trend was 6 seat Dun Laoghaire where Cormac Devlin scraped in on the last count with FF initially on 0.77 of a quota.
FF fielded too many candidates in some areas which also diluted their vote.

Its also apparent from the seat bounce stats (and the counts themselves!) that Labour got transfers from everywhere. Indeed there was a marked shift relating to both Green and Sinn Fein Transfers.

Sinn Fein transfers in the past have favoured both Fianna Fail and the Green Party. This time though Labour were the main beneficiaries, especially where a candidate from the Left was not still involved.

The more middle class an area the higher the Green Transfers were to Labour too.

Strikingly in Dublin City Council The broad Left (Lab, SF, PBP, WP and Ind) got well over half the vote.

In cases where there were no Labour candidates remaining The Left actually transfered to Fine Gael in numbers too.
That opposite could also be seen in cases where Fine Gael transfered more to Sinn Fein than to Fianna Fail. Of course in the Euros we had transfers to Joe Higgins from everywhere to keep Eoin Ryan out (and Mary Lou McDonald also).
Needless to say Fine Gael also transfered well to Labour.
In all councils the Labour vote was up and in all bar DLR the seat bounce was up too.
In all Council area Fine Gaels seat bounce was higher than that of the 2007 General Election as was their first Preference vote.

So what is indicated are a number of different dynamics.
The usual transfer pattern along Left/ Right lines but also the added change in that Labour got a lot more transfers from all quarters especially Sinn Fein and The Greens.
A more pronounced transfer pattern along government /opposition lines. We are probably more polarized now than ever.

So whats in it for the Left?
Well if the Left are in a position to strike, transfers will be far more likely to come their way,in many cases not due to who they are, but due to who they are not.

Labour
Dublin City Council
3 seats
Pembroke Rathmines 2.33
2 seats
Artane Whitehall 1.97
Ballymun Finglas 1.89
Crumlin Kimmage 1.99
North Inner City 1.75
South East Inner City 1.9
South West Inner City 1.75
1 seat
Ballyfermot Drimnagh 1.23
Cabra Glasnevin 1.29
Clontarf 0.99
Donaghmede 1.76

SDCC
3 seats
Tallaght Central 2.39
2 seats
Lucan 1.03
Tallaght South 1.67
1 seat
Clondalkin 1.51
Rathfarnham 0.99
Fingal
2 seats
Balbriggan 1.81
Howth-Malahide 1.63
Mulhuddart 1.63
Swords 1.53
1 seat
Castleknock 0.82

Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown
2 seats
Ballybrack 2.04
Dun Laoghaire 1.13
1 seat
Blackrock 1.11
Dundrum 1.19
Glencullen Sandyford 1.66
Stillorgan 0.74

 

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